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Technical Analysis deals in probabilities, never certainities.
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The art of technical analysis, for it is an art, is to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed.
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Introduction
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Buy and Hold Approach, particularly between 1966-1982
- Muhabbetin daha derinlerini ve soyle genel bir bakis acisini merak ediyorum
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Markette ilerleme olmadığını bunu da dow jones indexinden gördüğümüz durumu
- Bir marketin headway yapamaması ne demek?
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Human nature remains more or less constant and tends to react to similar situations in consistent ways.
- Aslında birincil olarak ECO101 prensiplerinden ilerliyoruz
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By studying the nature of previous market turning points, it is possible to develop some characteristics that can help to identify market tops and bottoms.
- Therefore, technical analysis is based on the assumption that people will continue to make the same mistakes they have made in the past. Human relationships are extremely complex and never repeat in identical combinations. The markets, which are a reflection of people in action, never duplicate their performance exactly, but the recurrence of similar characteristics is sufficient to enable technicians to identify juncture points.
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Since no single indicator has signaled, or indeed could signal, every top or bottom, technical analysts have developed an arsenal of tools to help isolate these points.
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Sentiment or expectational indicators monitor the actions of different market participants, such as insiders, mutual funds managers and investors, and floor specialists.
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Just as the pendulum of a clock continually moves from one extreme to another, so the sentiment indexes (which monitor the emotions of investors) move from one extreme at a bear market bottom to another at a bull market top. The assumption on which these indicators are based is that different groups of investors are consistent in their actions at major market turning points.
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For example major stockholders of a company) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) members as a group have a tendency to be correct at market turning points; in aggregate, their transactions are on the buy side toward market bottoms and on the sell side toward tops.
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Conversely, advisory services as a group are often wrong at market turning points, since they consistently become bullish at market tops and bearish at market troughs. Indexes derived from such data show that certain readings have historically corresponded to market tops, while others have been associated with market bottoms. Since the consensus or majority opinion is normally wrong at market turning points, these indicators of market psychology are a useful basis from which to form a contrary opinion.
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Flow-of-Funds Indicators
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Bir yerden para çıkışı varsa diğer yerde para girişi vardır (aynı şirket içi mantığında düşün), şirketler parasını alıp nereye yönlendiriyor, nerede gelecek görüyorlar
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A superior approach to flow-of-funds analysis is derived from an examination of liquidity trends in the banking system, which measures financial pressure not only on the stock market, but on the economy as well
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Since the technical approach is based on the theory that the price is a reflection of mass psychology, or the crowd in action, it attempts to forecast future price movements on the assumption that crowd psychology moves between panic, fear, and pessimism on one hand and confidence, excessive optimism, and greed on the other.
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